PBPools of Bethesda← Selected work

Applied research · interactive prototype

Treatment-gap
simulator.

Choose an invented intake profile and mark attendance during the first 30 days. The models estimate the chance of reaching a 60-day service gap during days 30–119.

Intake example

Invented profile. No client records are used.

Attendance calendar

Select service days in the first 30 days. Day 1 is intake day.

Model output

Estimated gap probability

Reaching a 60-day gap during the 90 days after day 30.

Logistic regression

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3D view & settings

Response surface across intake severity and first-month service days; other profile fields stay fixed.

L2 penalty · C = 0.1 · LBFGS · max 2,000 iterations

KNN

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3D view & settings

Nearest synthetic training examples projected into three principal components, which retain 56.8% of training variation. Matching uses all 32 features.

k = 15 · uniform votes · Euclidean distance · standardized features

Neural model GRU

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3D view & settings

Path of the first three latent GRU units across the 30-day attendance sequence; color moves from early to late.

Daily projection = 16 · hidden state = 32 · dropout = 0.1 · fusion layer = 16 · 20 training epochs

Loading synthetic model bundle…

The three models were trained on invented histories only. The 3D views help inspect model behavior; they are not explanations of real-world outcomes. The simulator runs in your browser and does not send or store scenario selections. Model differences are exploratory and are not evidence of real-world performance.